Take the offer or the counter-offer ?

Hi all, If anyone has any advice on this I would count it a favour :) BLUF - take the offer for a promotion in a bigger company or the counter-offer with less money and more goodwill ? I'm currently in a mid-tier firm, been there nearly three great years - great team, great clients. My first manager position - I struggled for many years as an individual contributor at a top tier firm so didn't advance quickly before finding MT and from there this role :) I'm happy overall. Have been preparing, folloiwng MT advice, for promotion up to senior management. I'm working on an offer from another top-tier firm, the opportunity came to me out of the blue. +1 for MT Interview Series ! as it's been signed off by the hiring manager. It's the promotion I'm looking for, location is similar except needs a long public transit commute (for 2 days a week then after 6 months say 1 day). Team seems good, it's a bigger and probably tougher job than the equivalent mid-tier. I'll get to see a salary figure soon and guessing it may be in region of +30%, based on my research. Against MT advice (apologies), I talked to my current boss about it and they actually counter-offered with a promotion plus "a small salary increase" (guessing 5%). They hinted they would have me back if I did leave but it didn't work out ! So, which offer should I decide on ? I'm struggling to figure out my decision criteria : Career - both are similar roles but the top-tier would probably be the better move. I'm possibly happier in a mid-tier firm but potentially great experience and opportunities in the new role ... Emotional - it's definitely disruptive to switch companies and as with any move would have to invest a lot to build up goodwill again Financial - + c. 30% may really help us reach some key family goals, albeit we might get there anyway based on other things ( or might not ) Family - + c.10 hours of travel a week, or perhaps 5 hours after 6 months, which my other half is OK with Any advice gratefully received - thank you !